Tag Archives: Vision 2030

Can Kenya make the “youth bulge” a source of strength, not a threat?

Population momentum: Fertility rates fall, but global population explosion goes on

The reality of falling fertility rates while global ‘population explosion’ goes on is depicted in the Figure above. The relentless growth in population might seem paradoxical given that the world’s average birth-rate has been slowly falling for decades. Humanity’s numbers continue to climb because of what scientists call population momentum. As a result of unchecked fertility in decades past, coupled with reduced child mortality, many people are now in their prime reproductive years, making even modest rates of fertility yield huge population increases. This according to John Bongaarts of Population Council in New York translates to adding more than 70 million people to the planet every year, which has been happening since the 1970s. The African continent is expected to double in population by the middle of this century, adding 1 billion people despite the ravages of AIDS and malnutrition.

What does this augur for Kenya? The 2009 Population & Housing Census suggested that Kenya’s population had increased by close to one million people annually over the period 1999 – 2009, equivalent to at least two children being born in Kenya every minute. Reacting to these findings, the HonMinister of State for Planning, National Development and Vision 2030, stated: “This high rate of population growth has adverse effects on spending in infrastructure, health, education, environment, water and other social and economic sectors. In order for the Government to achieve Vision 2030 goals, there is need to invest in education to meet the demands of the growing school age population and the demand for future manpower. In addition, critical investment will be required in family planning services, health and other social and economic sectors to improve the welfare of Kenyans.”

Kenya’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) estimated at 8.1 in 1977/78 declined to 4.6 children per woman by 2008/9 (KDHS 2008/9). This drop was largely attributed to increased practice of modern contraceptive methods over the time, and improved educational status of women. The contraceptive prevalence rate (all methods) rose sharply since the early 1980s; rising from 17% in 1984 to 33% in 1993 and to 39% of married women in 1998 and 46 percent in 2008/9.

Kenya’s population growth rate increased steadily from 2.5 percent in 1948, peaking at 3.8 percent in 1979, this being one of the highest growth rates ever recorded. Demographic transition began to manifest in 1989, when population growth rate declined to 3.4 percent and further to 2.5 percent in 1999, but estimated at a higher level of 2.9 per cent in 2009. Owing to the past growth rates Kenya’s population is still youthful with nearly half being aged 18 years or below. This is a clear demonstration of demographic momentum- a phenomenon of continued population increase despite reducing fertility rates, which is brought about by waves of large populations of young persons entering reproductive age in successive years. This may in part explain the addition of one million people annually to Kenya’s population referred to above, contributing to the “youth bulge”.

I have in a previous post asked “Can Kenya make the “youth bulge” a source of strength not a threat?”  Indeed, this can happen, with better planning and viable economic policies that mobilise the potential of every corner of this nation. Current investments on family planning (including the proposed Joint Global Birth Control Push), are not expected to translate into slowing of population growth rate in the short or medium terms, but should be viewed as a long-term goal. On the other hand such investments will empower women and men or couples as the case may be, with the choice when to have children and how many to have. This will lead to healthier families, and more productivity. Strengthening of institutions and equitable investment of resources can unleash a strong and better-educated workforce with fewer children to support and no elderly parents totally dependent on them.

In such a scenario, the “youth bulge”,generated by our recent demographic history and fertility decline through effective fertility regulation measures, could transform to the driving force behind economic prosperity in future decades.

UPDATE 06-10-2012: Recently Kenya’s Minister of State for Planning, National Development and Vision 2030 confirmed Government’s commitment to FP and the belief that no woman should die while giving birth to life. On October 2, 2012 Kenya’s Parliament approved the Sessional Paper No. 3 of 2012 on Population Policy for National Development which has (among others) the objective of lowering the TFR to 2.6.

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Selected case studies of women who were denied enjoyment of ‘right to health’ in Kenya

 

A review of ‘Human Rights Issues in maternal health care in Kenya: Do Kenyan women enjoy the right to maternal health?’ and ‘Barriers to enjoyment of health as a human right in Africa’ provides a useful background to the case studies.

The recently launched report by the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights[i] highlights several incidents and situations where women were denied their right to health care services both because of non-availability of resources and non-affordability of services, as well as misdeeds on the part of health care providers. People living with disabilities (PWDs), in particular, complained of mistreatment, especially delays in getting attended to in health facilities. Most health institutions were not disabled-friendly in terms of infrastructure and means of communication, for example, facilities for sign language or Braille.

A Level 2 Health Facility at Mtwapa, Mombasa County (Picture: J Mati)

Witnesses raised several complaints related to the inefficient referral systems in several health facilities that caused considerable delays in obtaining higher level care, not infrequently resulting in fatal consequences for the women and their babies. This was particularly a serious problem when it came to referral of patients from levels 1 and 2 to appropriate higher level facilities.

In some cases, women in rural areas had to be transported on wheel barrows by family members or on donkey carts. Where hospitals had ambulances, the patients or the relatives were required to pay amounts ranging from KSHs. 500 to KSHs. 3,000 supposedly to fuel the vehicles. In situations where people were unable to pay, patients were denied treatment. In other instances, blood was not readily available in hospital blood banks, or the facilities lacked adequate infrastructure to obtain blood for emergency transfusions.

In Tana River, for example, a woman who developed complications after delivering at a dispensary (level 2) died while waiting to raise funds, through harambee, to fuel a government ambulance to take her to Hola District Hospital. A similar report is given in connection with a maternal death due to lack of transport between Magarini Dispensary and Malindi District Hospital, both in Kilifi County.

In Lamu County, patients who needed to be referred to Coast Provincial Hospital in Mombasa were reportedly required to pay between KSHs. 8,000 and KSHs. 10,000 to fuel the hospital’s ambulance. Where there are no ambulances, as in Wajir and Marsabit District Hospitals families had either to hire expensive taxis or resort to donkeys and camels to transport their sick members.

Witnesses testified that the high cost of hospital delivery, especially the fees charged at level 4 and 5 facilities, was a key hindrance to accessing skilled attendance at delivery. A witness during the inquiry stated thus: ‘Many women deliver at home because they do not have enough money to go to the hospital’.

 Corruption, especially among hospital management staff, was also cited as a barrier to accessing maternal health services. According to witness accounts from Kitale, corruption in health facilities meant that patients ended up paying for drugs and other items that ought to be provided for free. Similarly, bribes were solicited to facilitate earlier scheduling of surgical treatment, as stated by a witness at the Coast: “For one to get an operation done quickly at Coast General Hospital one has to pay bribes or know someone because there are long queues, so I left”.

Mistreatment in health facilities by unkind, cruel, sometimes inebriated hospital staff, who scolded, abused and even beat patients also features prominently in the report. So are delays in getting attended to in health institutions, particularly in the labour ward, where witnesses complained of being neglected during labour, in some cases ending in delivering unattended within the hospital. An example is the case of a woman who waited at the out-patients from 5am to 4pm before being admitted to the labour ward, ending up with a stillborn child. Women complained of being admitted in overcrowded wards and sharing of beds; up to three women with their babies sharing one bed, even when some of them were still bleeding, which exposed them to potential risk of infection, including HIV and Hepatitis B. Detaining of women for non-payment of hospital charges obviously contributes to congestion in hospital wards.

There were complaints of frequent lack of essential medicines, equipment, commodities and supplies in public health facilities resulting in denial of services to the needy. It was common in most public facilities for patients to be asked to purchase medicines, gloves and dressings, besides being referred to private institutions for specialised radiological and ultrasound diagnostic examinations. Essential resources for effective provision of sexual and reproductive health services were lacking in many health facilities. For example, many lacked the drugs needed for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) following sexual abuse including rape. The Inquiry established that non-availability of family planning commodities was a fundamental barrier to accessing comprehensive family planning in Kenya, this being illustrated by the frequent stock outs of commodities. There were complaints of frequent shortages of various contraceptives which denied clients a wide choice of family planning methods.

Several witnesses complained of negligent actions by doctors and midwives, for example, forgetting items such as surgical instruments or swabs in a patient’s abdomen; performing procedures such as hysterectomy without prior informed consent; poorly managed labour leading to ruptured uterus, maternal morbidities such as VVF and RVF, intra-uterine foetal death or a mentally handicapped child,. Other examples of negligent actions or omissions were performing episiotomy and failing to repair it, and failure to recognise accidental injury during surgery and failing to repair it immediately. There were women who complained that not enough information was given to them about the various diagnostic and treatment modalities they had been subjected to by health providers. In particular, there was inadequate information given to the patients before and after surgical procedures.

 The Report cites an article published in The Daily Nation Newspaper of 18th January 2011 on a case of maternal death associated with abortion:

“A woman aged 40 years who was held at Murang’a police station for allegedly procuring an abortion died after she developed complications while in the police cells. The Police said the woman was reported to have terminated the pregnancy by swallowing some chemical, and locked her up in a cell at the police station. They said she later developed complications and was being rushed to hospital when she died en route.”

 It can be argued that had the police taken the woman to a health care professional, instead of holding her in remand at the police station, she most likely would have survived. In other words this was a case of preventable death associated with denial of enjoyment of right to health. Yet this was after the promulgation of the Constitution of Kenya 2010 which has relaxed the rigidity on termination of pregnancy that existed previously. Article 26 (4) permits safe abortion if in the opinion of a trained health professional, there is need for emergency treatment, or the life or health of the mother is in danger, or if permitted by any other written law.

What can be learned from the above case studies?

Clearly, they demonstrate that Kenya has yet to address the well known factors and barriers that have over the years sustained the prevailing high rates of maternal and newborn mortality and morbidity. Maternal health services that are inaccessible, non-affordable and of poor quality, have been perpetuated by several serious weaknesses in the health systems- inadequate capacity in terms of human resources and health infrastructure, negligence and malpractices especially among over-worked de-motivated health service providers, and various socio-cultural barriers, among others. Addressing these barriers is a prerequisite to meeting local and international goals and targets including the Vision 2030 and Millennium Development Goals.


[i] A Report of the Public Inquiry into Violations of Sexual and Reproductive Health Rights in Kenya

A commentary on population and development in Kenya

The theme of Kenya’s National Leaders’ Conference on Population and Development, November 15-17, 2010 is “managing population to achieve Kenya Vision 2030”. Vision 2030 is the national blueprint for long-term development which aims to transform Kenya into “a newly-industrialising, middle income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens in a clean and secure environment”. The Vision is anchored on three key pillars: Economic; Social; and Political Governance. This conference comes in the wake of the release of the 2009 Population & Housing Census , in which Kenya’s population is estimated at 39 million, with the population growth rate calculated at 2.5 percent over the period 1999-2009. A lot of concern has been expressed on the revelation that Kenya’s population increased by about a million people annually over that period, and that the population is projected to reach 64 million by 2030.

Kenya’s population growth rate increased steadily from 2.5 percent in 1948, peaking at 3.8 percent in 1979, this being one of the highest growth rates ever recorded. In 1989 the population growth rate began to decline, to 3.4 percent and further down to 2.5 percent in 1999, a level that has been sustained to 2009. The current population growth rate (of 2.5 percent), is still considered to be high, and owing to the past growth rates the population is still youthful with nearly half being aged 18 years or below. This is what has been dubbed demographic momentum– a phenomenon of continued population increase despite reducing fertility rates, which is brought about by waves of large populations of young persons entering reproductive age in successive years. This may in part explain the addition of one million people annually to Kenya’s population, as referred to above.

From the above, it is indeed a disconcerting thought for family planning advocates; to realize that there is a limit as to what birth control per se can do to significantly curtail Kenya’s population increasing trend over several decades! Perhaps the attention should change to finding out how to take advantage of the population momentum to improve our economy, so as to provide a high quality of life to all Kenyans, as envisioned in Vision 2030. Nevertheless, family planning will continue to play a central role in measures taken to improve the economy.

Can Kenya make use of the demographic momentum; make it a source of strength, not a threat? This is exactly what the so-called Asian Tigers did. They were faced with a situation similar to Kenya’s- coming from decades of high fertility that had generated huge population momentum. With better planning and viable economic policies they were able to unleash a healthy and better-educated workforce with fewer children to support and no elderly parents totally dependent on them. It can happen here; with adoption of social, economic, and political policies that allow realisation of the growth potential of our youth across the country, Kenya’s large youthful population can become our boon not our bane. To that end, family planning will remain a key driver of Kenya’s sustainable economic growth now and in the foreseeable future.

The government statement that “critical investment will be required in family planning services, health and other social and economic sectors to improve the welfare of Kenyans” is welcome. However, it needs to be followed by a critical review of the factors that have interfered with the effectiveness of Kenya’s Family Planning Programme; there is need to ask ‘what went wrong? In my view, these factors fall in two broad categories: First, an uncertain environment for effective promotion of birth control measures (political commitment; gender equity; child survival, among others), and second, serious chronic institutional weaknesses that interfere with effectiveness of the family planning programme (coverage of FP services; commodity security; quality of services and care, among others). Hopefully, the Leaders’ Conference may address these issues.

Related link

Kenya’s Rapid Population Increase: Our bane, boon or both

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